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DTN Midday Grain Comments     10/12 11:58

   Grains Higher at Midday

   Trade is firmer across the board at midday.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are firmer with the Dow futures up 230. The 
interest rate products are mostly higher. The dollar index is 25 higher. 
Energies are mixed with crude up 0.60. Livestock trade is mostly weaker. 
Precious metals are mixed with gold down 5.40. 


   Corn trade is 2 to 4 cents higher, holding gains from Thursday, with more 
spillover support from row crops so far. Cold weather is expected to persist 
with the heaviest rain potential passed in most areas. Ethanol futures have 
edged back above 1.30 at midday. Weekly export sales were solid at 1.01 million 
metric tons. Corn basis is expected to stay sideways with wet weather limiting 
weakness in some areas. The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates 
(WASDE) report was supportive vs. expectations with yield falling slightly to 
180.7 bushels per acre, a bushel below expectations, with production falling 
slightly to 14.778 billion bushels. Ending stocks were estimated at 1.813 
billion bushels, which was 100 million bushels below expectations. On the 
December chart, support is at the $3.67 50-day with resistance at our recent 
high of $3.73. The 100-day is above it at $3.73 3/4. 


   Soybean trade is 7 to 10 cents higher with trade working to extend 
post-report gains. Ongoing quality concerns after the storms are battling it 
out with continued slow demand. Meal is narrowly mixed, and oil is 35 to 45 
points higher. Soybean basis has found some footing with the delays, although 
it remains abnormally wide with more focus on quality losses. Aggressive 
discounts are seen along the river system. Crush margins remain strong. Weekly 
export sales were poor for soybeans at 439,700, but good for meal and oil at 
348,500 and 12,100. Early planting in South America is underway with the recent 
weather pattern remaining intact. The WASDE report showed yield slightly higher 
at 53.1 bpa with 600,000 fewer acres. Production was estimated at 4.690 
billion, down slightly from last month, with carryout rising 40 million to 885 
million. World stocks rose slightly to 110 million. On the November chart, 
support is the 10-day at $8.62 with resistance the recent high at $8.76. 


   Wheat trade is 2 to 9 cents higher with early gains yet again with trade 
looking to see if they can be sustained for once. The U.S. dollar has faded 
back below 95 with some light buying today. World spring wheat harvest is 
nearing completion, while winter wheat planting is ongoing with better 
conditions in North America than Europe. Australia remains in the recent 
weather pattern. Weekly export sales remain sluggish at 339,700 metric tons 
with trade still focused on Russia's aggressive program. The WASDE report had 
wheat carryout at 956 million, slightly above the average guess, and world 
stocks at 261.2 million metric tons, just below the average guess. On the 
December KC chart, we are just above at the 10-day and 20-day at $5.18 with the 
lower Bollinger Band support at $5.09, and resistance the upper Bollinger Band 
at $5.30

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser.  
He can be reached at 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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