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DTN Midday Grain Comments 03/21 10:49
Wheat Futures Lower at Midday; Corn Flat-Lower; Soybeans Mixed
Corn futures are flat to 1 cent lower at midday Tuesday; soybean futures are
narrowly mixed; wheat futures are 1 to 11 cents lower.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
MARKET SUMMARY:
Corn futures are flat to 1 cent lower at midday Tuesday; soybean futures are
narrowly mixed; wheat futures are 1 to 11 cents lower. The U.S. stock market is
firmer with the S&P 35 higher. The U.S. Dollar Index is 20 points lower.
Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are mixed with crude up 1.10 and
natural gas off .05. Livestock trade is mixed with cattle leading. Precious
metals are mixed with gold off 30.00.
CORN:
Corn futures are flat to 1 cent lower with spread action remaining firmer
with early buying giving way to midday weakness as buying interest waned.
Ethanol margins will continue to work sideways with corn action narrowing
things a little while driving demand starts to work higher seasonally with a
fast start to the week. Crop development in Brazil will be watched closer as
double-crop planting winds up with the forecast drying a little to help for now
with potential concerns if it shows the dry season starting while Argentina
limps towards the finish line. The daily export wire saw action again with
China securing another 136,000 metric tons (mt) of corn. Basis has remained
flat to firmer. On the May chart, support is the lower Bollinger Band back
below the market at $6.01, and the 20-day moving average at $6.34, which we
faded from this morning.
SOYBEANS:
Soybean action is narrowly mixed with early gains fading again as we remain
at the lower end of the recent range with trade needing a bullish spark to
sustain buying. Meal is $2.00 to $3.00 higher and oil is 160 to 170 points
lower with oil unable to escape the low end of the range. The daily export wire
has been quiet as we get deeper into Brazil's prime export season. Trade will
be looking for the Brazil export pace to improve with the strong recent
movement with harvest moving along with drier weather short term likely to help
with Argentina to catch some isolated moisture as the growing season winds down
with Brazil basis fading. New crop continues to see losses vs. corn as the time
to bid for acres grows short with early strength giving way again Tuesday.
Basis remains mostly sideways to soft near term. May chart resistance is at the
$15.05 20-day moving average, which we are solidly below with the upper
Bollinger Band at $15.44 as further resistance, and the Lower Bollinger Band at
$14.72, which we tested Monday before bouncing.
WHEAT:
Wheat futures are 1 to 11 cents lower at midday with early gains and spread
strength turning to selling with soft euro values and ags shifting back towards
risk-off at midday turning trade to selling. The KC wheat areas look to remain
on the shorter end of moisture over the next couple of weeks with short-term
weather warming up a little with SRW seeing moisture, with the Northern Plains
mixed ahead of planting. World wheat weather remains mixed short term with
India harvest starting in some areas with exports likely to be delayed until
later. Matif wheat values are weaker again as they have limited upside with the
recent weakness. On the chart, KC May has the 20-day moving average at support
at $8.19 that we are testing at midday, with the Upper Bollinger Band well
above the market at $8.61.
David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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