DTN Midday Grain Comments     08/18 11:01

   Corn, Wheat Futures Lower at Midday Tuesday; Soybeans Higher

   Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents lower at midday Tuesday; soybean futures are 7 
to 8 cents higher; wheat futures are 5 cents lower to 3 cents higher. 

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

MARKET SUMMARY:

   Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents lower at midday Tuesday; soybean futures are 7 
to 8 cents higher; wheat futures are 5 cents lower to 3 cents higher. The U.S. 
stock market is weaker at midday with the S&P 44 points lower. The U.S. Dollar 
Index is 9 points lower. The interest rate products are firmer. Energy trade is 
firmer with crude up .88 and natural gas .03 cents higher. Livestock trade is 
mixed with cattle leading. Precious metals are weaker with gold off 62.00.

CORN:

   Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents lower at midday with two-sided action as we 
pressed further into nearby resistance levels overnight and we wait for further 
crop tour updates and outside market developments. Ethanol margins look to 
remain strong nearby, but summer driving demand will likely fade into the end 
of the month. Weather looks to be a little less active into midmonth with temps 
likely to keep maturity ahead of normal. The weekly Crop Progress report showed 
good to excellent at 60% (down 1 percentage point); 15% poor to very poor (up 1 
percentage point). Four percent of the corn was mature versus 3% on average; 
29% dented versus 24% on average; and 76% in the dough versus 70% on average. 
Basis will likely drift lower except for the west in the short term. On the 
September chart, the 20-day moving average at $4.49 has become support with the 
Upper Bollinger band at $4.67 as resistance, which we are tested overnight.

SOYBEANS:

   Soybean futures are 7 to 8 cents higher at midday with broad product 
strength as we push the nearby contract back over the $12.00 mark. Meal is flat 
to 1.00 lower and oil is 115 to 125 points lower. Basis has continued to hold 
up well as we draw nearer to harvest as crush margins remain stable. NOPA 
monthly crush is up 11% year-on-year. Weather looks to reduce excess rain with 
mostly warm temps in the short term. On Monday's Crop Progress report, 
conditions were 61% good to excellent (down 1 point) and 10% poor to very poor 
(steady). Setting pods was at 85% versus 80% on average; 96% blooming versus 
94% on average. The daily export wire saw 136,000 metric tons of new-crop sold 
to China. On the September contract, chart support is the 20-day moving average 
at $11.85, which we closed solidly above Monday, with resistance the Upper 
Bollinger Band at $12.26.

WHEAT:

   Wheat futures are 5 cents lower to 3 cents higher with Minneapolis action 
leading at midday as we continue to consolidate the upper end of the range. 
Spring wheat areas should see harvest expand further with 41% complete versus 
34% on average. The crop was rated 52% good to excellent (up 1 point) and 12% 
poor to very poor (down 4 points). Winter wheat harvest is 96% complete versus 
94% on average. Matif wheat is lightly higher Tuesday. On the KC September 
chart, support is the 20-day moving average at $7.26, which we blew through 
Friday, with the Upper Bollinger Band at $7.68 as resistance.

    

   David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com

   Follow him on social platform X @davidfiala




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